Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-03-02 26.660145 29.525091 32.789041 36.835007 41.792394 47.776468 55.724512
2025-03-09 22.492856 26.095372 30.556130 36.664916 45.134710 57.042819 76.358151
2025-03-16 19.650966 23.555524 28.691480 36.290171 47.983107 66.953680 105.253085
2025-03-23 17.615041 21.639227 27.184330 35.918582 50.632981 78.025611 148.948162
2025-03-30 16.114416 20.186453 26.013464 35.692507 53.386255 91.148951 223.220055
2025-04-06 14.774661 18.768814 24.643421 34.799203 54.604956 102.188111 332.741081
2025-04-13 14.254864 18.453426 24.865347 36.596633 61.809906 135.702799 945.845066
2025-04-20 13.399551 17.535875 23.993207 36.219444 64.180800 158.758657 3617.135681
2025-04-27 12.779159 16.910365 23.507499 36.459105 68.187357 196.366704 NaN
2025-05-04 12.264307 16.397152 23.138933 36.844845 72.840538 251.514456 NaN
2025-05-11 11.766067 15.865045 22.670998 36.924696 76.754194 321.422112 NaN
2025-05-18 11.240035 15.246887 21.984254 36.401693 78.616146 390.724714 NaN
2025-05-25 10.829594 14.795982 21.567456 36.446149 82.683008 534.371685 NaN
2025-06-01 10.410033 14.302221 21.026407 36.114984 85.366538 723.011080 NaN
2025-06-08 10.014765 13.824542 20.473570 35.668042 87.500180 1005.022345 NaN
2025-06-15 9.658965 13.392496 19.970836 35.266392 89.745371 1521.122762 NaN
2025-06-22 9.350319 13.023061 19.557689 35.026723 92.727058 2856.976996 NaN
2025-06-29 8.998512 12.561457 18.931975 34.150969 92.303670 4498.261303 NaN
2025-07-06 8.936082 12.594973 19.276262 35.886260 106.745385 NaN NaN
2025-07-13 8.674823 12.266289 18.871288 35.518464 109.436958 NaN NaN
2025-07-20 8.485551 12.055093 18.688313 35.748983 116.294307 NaN NaN
2025-07-27 8.320184 11.877761 18.560656 36.121454 124.851694 NaN NaN
2025-08-03 8.140032 11.665131 18.343937 36.198324 131.697909 NaN NaN